C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 10 MOSCOW 005645

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 05/25/2016
TAGS PREL, PGOV, MARR, MOPS, RS
SUBJECT: CHECHNYA: THE ONCE AND FUTURE WAR
REF: MOSCOW 5461 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason 1.4 (b, d)

¶1. (C) Introduction: Chechnya has been less in the glare of constant
international attention in recent years. However, the Chechnya conflict remains
unresolved, and the suffering of the Chechen people and the threat of
instability throughout the region remain. This message reinterprets the history
of the Chechen wars as a means of better understanding the current dynamics, the
challenges facing Russia, the way in which the Kremlin perceives those
challenges, and the factors limiting the Kremlin's ability to respond. It draws
on close observation on the ground and conversations with many participants in
and observers of the conflict from the moment of Chechnya's declaration of
independence in 1991. We intend this message to spur thinking on new approaches
to a tragedy that persists as an issue within Russia and between Russia and the
U.S., Europe and the Islamic world.

Summary
--------

¶2. (C) President Putin has pursued a two-pronged strategy to extricate Russia
from the war in Chechnya and establish a viable long-term modus vivendi
preserving Moscow's role as the ultimate arbiter of Chechen affairs. The first
prong was to gain control of the Russian military deployed there, which had long
operated without real central control and was intent on staying as long as its
officers could profit from the war. The second prong was "Chechenization,"
which in effect means turning Chechnya over to former nationalist separatists
willing to profess loyalty to Russia. There are two difficulties with Putin's
strategy. First, while Chechenization has been successful in suppressing
nationalist separatists within Chechnya, it has not been as effective against
the Jihadist militants, who have broadened their focus and are gaining strength
throughout the North Caucasus. Second, as long as former separatist warlords
run Chechnya, Russian forces will have to stay in numbers sufficient to ensure
that the ex-separatists remain "ex." More broadly, the suffering of an abused
and victimized population will continue, and with it the alienation that feeds
the insurgency.

¶3. (C) To deal effectively with Chechnya in the long term, Putin needs to
increase his control over the Russian Power Ministries and reduce opportunities
for them to profit from war corruption. He needs to strengthen Russian civilian
engagement, reinforcing the role of his Plenipotentiary Representative. He needs
to take a broad approach to combat the spread of Jihadism, and not rely
primarily on suppression by force. In this context there is only a limited role
for the U.S., but we and our allies can help by expressing our concerns to
Putin, directing assistance to areas where our programs can slow the spread of
Jihadism, and working with Russia's southern neighbors to minimize the effects
of instability. End Summary.

The Starting Point: Problems of the "Russianized" Conflict
--------------------------------------------- --------------

¶4. (C) Chechnya was only one of the conflicts that broke out in the former
Soviet Union at the time of the country's collapse. Territorial conflicts, most
of them separatist, erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, South Ossetia,
North Ossetia/Ingushetia, Abkhazia and Tajikistan. Russian troops were involved
in combat in all of those conflicts, sometimes clandestinely. In all except
Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian troops remain today as peacekeepers. Russia doggedly
insists on this presence and resists pulling its forces out. Its diplomatic
efforts have served to keep the conflicts frozen, with Russian troops remaining
in place.

¶5. (C) Why is this? The charge is often made that Russia's motive for keeping
the conflicts frozen is geostrategic, or "neo-imperialism," or fear of NATO, or
revenge against Georgia and Moldova, or a quest to preserve leverage. Indeed,
the continued deployments may satisfy those Russians who think in such terms,
and expand the domestic consensus for sending troops throughout the CIS.
However, while one or another of those factors may have been the original
impulse, each of the conflicts has gone through phases in which the conflict's
perceived uses for the Russian state have changed. No one of these factors has
been continuous over the life of any of the conflicts.

¶6. (C) We would propose an additional factor: the determination of Russia's
senior officer corps to remain deployed in those countries to engage in
lucrative activity outside their official military tasks. Sometimes that
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activity has been as mercenaries -- for instance, Russian active-duty soldiers
fought on both sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 1991-92. Sometimes it
has involved narcotics smuggling, as in Tajikistan. Selling arms to all sides
has been a long-standing tradition. And sometimes it has meant collaborating
with the mafias of both sides in conflict to facilitate contraband trade across
the lines, as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The officers and their generals
formed a powerful bloc in favor of all the deployments, especially under
Yeltsin.

¶7. (C) This "military-entrepreneurial" bloc soon formed an autonomous
institution, in some respects outside the government's control. There are many
illustrations of its autonomy. For instance, in 1993 Yeltsin reached an
agreement with Georgia on peacekeeping in Abkhazia. When the Georgian delegation
arrived in Sochi in September of that year to hammer out the details with
Russia's generals, they found the deal had changed. When they protested that
Yeltsin had agreed to other terms, a Russian general replied, "Let the President
sit in Moscow, drink vodka, and chase women. That's his business. We are here,
and we have our work to do."

The Secret History of the Chechen War
-------------------------------------

¶8. (C) The lack of central control over the military, as well as officers'
cupidity, may have been a prime cause of the first Chechnya War. Immediately
after the collapse of the Soviet Union, energy prices in the "ruble zone" were 3
percent of world market prices. Government officials and their partners bought
oil at ruble prices, diverted it abroad, and sold it on the world market. The
military joined in this arbitrage. Pavel Grachev, then Defense Minister,
reportedly diverted oil to Western Group of Forces commander Burlakov, who sold
it in Germany.

¶9. (C) Chechnya was a major entrepot for laundering oil for this arbitrage. It
appears to have been used both by the military (including Grachev) and the
Khasbulatov-Rutskoy axis in the Duma. Dudayev had declared independence, but
remained part of the Russian elite. Chechnya's independence, oilfields,
refineries and pipelines made Chechnya perfect for laundering oil. Planes,
trains, buses and roads and pipelines to Chechnya were functioning, allowing
anyone and anything to transit -- except auditors. In the early 1990's millions
of tons of "Russian" oil entered Chechnya and were magically transformed into
"Chechen" oil to be sold on the world market at world prices. Some of the
proceeds went to buy the Chechens weaponry, most of it from the Russian
military, and another lucrative trade developed. Dudayev took much of his cut of
the proceeds in weapons. The Groznyy Bazaar was notorious in the early 1990s for
the quantity and variety of arms for sale, including heavy weaponry.

¶10. (C) Chechnya was the home of Ruslan Khasbulatov and served various purposes
for his faction of the Russian elite. He took advantage of the army's
independence from Yeltsin's control. An informed source believes that it was
Khasbulatov, not the "official" Russian government, who facilitated the transfer
of Shamil Basayev and his heavily-armed fighters from Chechnya into Abkhazia in
1992, and who ordered the Russian air force to bomb Sukhumi when Shevardnadze
went there to take personal command of the Georgians' last stand in July 1993.
The Yeltsin government always denied that it bombed Sukhumi, despite Western
eyewitness accounts confirming the bombing and the insignia on the planes. Given
the confusion of those years, it could well be that the order originated in the
Duma, not the Kremlin.

¶11. (C) After Khasbulatov and Rutskoy were written out of the Russian equation
in October 1993, so was Dudayev. Clandestine Russian support for the Chechen
political and military opposition to Dudayev began in the spring of 1994,
according to participants. When that proved ineffective, Russian bombing was
deployed. (One Dudayev opponent recounted that in 1994 a Russian pilot was given
a mission to fire a missile into one of the top-floor corners of Groznyy's
Presidency building at a time when Dudayev was scheduled to hold a cabinet
meeting there. Not knowing Groznyy, the pilot asked which building to bomb, and
was told "the tallest one." He bombed a residential apartment building.) When
air power, too, proved ineffective, Russian troops were secretly sent in to
reinforce the armed opposition. Dudayev's forces captured about a dozen and put
them on television -- and the Russian invasion began shortly thereafter.

¶12. (C) Given the gangsterish background of the war, it is no surprise that the
military conducted the war itself as a profit-making enterprise, especially
after the capture of
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Groznyy. By May 1995 an anti-Dudayev Chechen could lament, "When we invited the
Russian army in we expected an army -- not this band of marauders." Contraband
trade in oil, weapons (including direct sales from Russian military stores to
the insurgents), drugs, and liquor, plus "protection" for legitimate trade made
military service in Chechnya lucrative for those not on the front lines. This
profitability ended only with the August 1996 defeat of Russian forces in
Groznyy at the hands of the insurgents and the subsequent Russian withdrawal --
a defeat made possible because the Russian forces were hollowed out by their
officers' corruption and pursuit of economic profit.

¶13. (C) Before they lost this "cash-cow" to their enemies, Russian officers
went to great lengths to keep their friends from interfering with their profits.
On July 30, 1995, the Russians and the Chechen insurgents signed a cease-fire
agreement mediated by the OSCE. It would have meant the gradual withdrawal of
Russian forces. Enforcing the cease-fire was a Joint Observation Commission
("SNK"). The head of the SNK was General Anatoliy Romanov, a competent and
upright officer -- very much a rarity in Chechnya. After two months at this
assignment he was severely injured by a mine inside Groznyy, and has been
hospitalized ever since. Informed observers believe Romanov's own colleagues in
the Russian forces carried out this murder attempt. The cease-fire, never
enforced, broke down.

¶14. (C) When the second war began in September 1999, Russian forces again
started profiteering from a trade in contraband oil. Western eyewitnesses
reported convoys of Russian army trucks carrying oil leaving Groznyy under cover
of night. Eventually the Russian forces reached an understanding with the
insurgent fighters. Seeing one such convoy, a Western reporter asked his
guerrilla hosts whether the fighters ever attacked such convoys. "No," the
leader replied. "They leave us alone and we leave them alone."

No Exit for Putin
-----------------

¶15. (C) Sometime between one and two years after Russian forces were unleashed
for a second time on Chechnya, Putin appears to have realized that they were not
going to deliver a neat victory. That failure would make Putin look weak at
home, the human rights violations would estrange the West, and the drain on the
Russian treasury would be punishing (this was before the dramatic rise in energy
prices). Putin could not negotiate a peace with Maskhadov: he had already
rejected that course and could not back down without appearing weak. The
Khasavyurt accords that ended the first war were the result of defeat; a new set
of accords would be seen as a new defeat. In any case, the history of the war
(and the fate of General Romanov) made clear that negotiations without the
subordination of the military were a physical impossibility.

¶16. (C) Putin thus found himself without a winning strategy and had to develop
one. He has taken a two-pronged approach. One prong was subordinating the
military. The appointment of Sergey Ivanov as Defense Minister appears to have
been aimed at subjecting the military to the control of the security services. A
series of reassignments and firings is the surface evidence of the struggle to
subordinate the military in Chechnya. Southern Military District commander
Troshev, who led the 1999 invasion, refused outright the first orders
transferring him to Siberia in November 2002, and went on television to
publicize his mutiny. He was finally removed in February 2003. Chief of the
Defense Staff Kvashnin, who had held the Southern District command during the
first Chechen war, hung on in a combative relationship with Ivanov for three
years until he, too, was replaced in 2004 (and also sent to Siberia as the
Presidential Representative in Novosibirsk). The spring 2005 dismissal of
General Viktor Kazantsev, Putin's Plenipotentiary Representative in the Southern
Federal District, was reportedly the final link in the chain. Military
corruption, and feeding at the trough of Chechnya, has not ended, but the
corruption has reportedly been "institutionalized" and more closely regulated in
Kremlin-controlled channels.

Chechenization, Ahmad-Haji Kadyrov, and the Salafists
--------------------------------------------- --------

¶17. (C) The second prong of Putin's strategy was to hand the fighting over to
Chechens. "Chechenization" differs from Vietnamization or Iraqification. In
those strategies, a loyalist force is strengthened to the point at which it can
carry on the fight itself. Chechenization, in contrast, has meant handing
Chechnya over to the guerrillas in exchange for their professions of loyalty,
the formal retention of Chechnya within the Russian Federation, and an uneasy
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cooperation with Federal authorities that in practice is constantly
re-negotiated.

¶18. (C) Chechenization is associated with Ahmad-Haji Kadyrov, the insurgent
commander and chief Mufti of separatist Chechnya. After he defected to the
Russians, Putin put him in charge of the new Russian-installed Chechen
administration. Chechenization was reportedly agreed between Kadyrov and Putin
personally. But the seeds of the policy were sown by a split in the insurgent
ranks dating to the first war. That split that took the form of a religious
dispute, though it masked a power struggle among warlords. The split is the
direct result of the introduction of a new element: Arab forces espousing a
pan-Islamic Jihadist religious ideology.

¶19. (C) The traditional Islam of Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia is based on
Sufism, or Islamic mysticism. Though nominally the Sufi orders were the same as
those predominant in Central Asia and Kurdistan -- Naqshbandi and Qadiri --
Sufism in the Northeast Caucasus took on a unique form in the 18th-19th century
struggle against Russian encroachment. It is usually called "muridism." Murids
were armed acolytes of a hieratic commander, the murshid. Shaykh Shamil, the
Naqshbandi murshid who led the mountaineers' resistance to the Russians until
his capture in 1859, was both a spiritual guide and a military commander. He
also exercised government powers. The largest Sufi branch ("vird") in Chechnya
is the Kunta-Haji "vird" of the Qadiris, founded and led by the charismatic
Chechen missionary Kunta-Haji Kishiyev until his exile by the Russians in 1864.
Although the historical Kunta-Haji died two years later, his followers believe
that Kunta-Haji lives on in occultation, like the Shi'a Twelfth Imam.

¶20. (C) When Arab fighters joined the Chechen conflict in 1995, they brought
with them a "Salafist" doctrine that attempts to emulate the fundamental, "pure"
Islam of the Prophet Muhammad and his immediate successors, especially `Umar,
the second Caliph. It holds that mysticism is one of the "impurities" that crept
into Islam after the first four Caliphs, and considers Sufis to be heretics and
idolaters. The idea that Kunta-Haji adepts could believe their founder is still
alive -- and that they worship the grave of his mother -- is an abomination to
Salafis, who believe that marked graves are a form of pagan ancestor worship
(Muhammad's grave in Arabia is not marked).

¶21. (C) Wahhabism-based forms of Islam started appearing in Chechnya by 1991,
as Chechens were able to travel and some went to Saudi Arabia for religious
study. But the true influx of Salafis (usually lumped together with Wahhabis in
Russia) came during the first Chechen war. In February 1995 Fathi `Ali
al-Shishani, a Jordanian of Chechen descent, arrived in Chechnya. A veteran of
the war in Afghanistan, he was now too old to be a combatant, but was a
missionary for Salafism. He recruited another Afghan veteran, the Saudi
al-Khattab, to come to Chechnya and lead a group of Arab fighters.

¶22. (C) Al-Khattab's fighters were never a major military factor during the
war, but they were the key to Gulf money, which financed power struggles in the
inter-war years. Al-Khattab forged close links with Shamil Basayev, the most
famous Chechen field commander. Basayev himself was from a Qadiri family, but he
was too Sovietized to view Islam as anything more than part of the Chechen and
Caucasus identity. In his early interviews, Basayev showed himself to be
motivated by Chechen nationalism, not religion, though he paid lip-service --
e.g., proclaiming Sharia law in Vedeno in early 1995 -- to attract Gulf donors.
Basayev's initial interest in al-Khattab, as indeed with other jihadists
starting even before the first war, was purely financial.

¶23. (C) After the first war, al-Khattab set up a camp in Serzhen-Yurt ("Baza
Kavkaz") for military and religious indoctrination. It provided one of the few
employment opportunities for demobilized Chechen fighters between the wars.
Young Chechens had traditionally engaged in seasonal migrant construction work
throughout the Soviet Union, but after the first war that was no longer open to
them. The closed international borders also precluded smuggling -- another
pre-war source of employment and income. The fighters had no money, no jobs, no
education, no skills save with their guns, and no prospects. Al-Khattab's offer
of food, shelter and work was inviting. As a result, between the wars Salafism
spread quickly in Chechnya. (Al-Khattab also invited missionaries and
facilitators who set up shop in Chechnya, Dagestan and Georgia's Pankisi Gorge,
whose Kist residents are close relatives of the Chechens.)

Battle Lines in Peacetime
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-------------------------

¶24. (C) Chechen society is distinguished by its propensity to unite in war and
fragment in peace. It is based on opposing dichotomies: the Vaynakh peoples are
divided into Chechens and Ingush; the Chechens are divided into highlanders
("Lameroi") and lowlanders ("Nokhchi"); and these are further divided into
tribal confederations and exogamous tribes ("teyp") and their subdivisions. Each
unit will unite with its opposite to combat a threat from outside. Two lowland
teyps, for example, will drop quarrels and unite against an intruding highland
teyp. But left to themselves, they will quarrel and split. After the Khasavyurt
accords, when Russia left the Chechens alone, the wartime alliance between
Maskhadov and Basayev split and the two became enemies. Other warlords lined up
on one side or the other -- the Yamadayev brothers of Gudermes, for example,
fighting a pitched battle against Basayev in 1999. But the rise of Basayev and
al-Khattab undermined Maskhadov's authority and prevented him from exercising
any real power.

¶25. (C) This power struggle took on a religious expression. Since Basayev was
associated with al-Khattab and Salafism, Maskhadov positioned himself as
champion of traditional Sufism. He surrounded himself with Sufi shaykhs and
appointed Ahmad-Haji Kadyrov, a strong adherent of Kunta-Haji Sufism, as
Chechnya's Mufti. Kadyrov had spent six years in Uzbekistan, allegedly at
religious seminaries in Tashkent and Bukhara, and seems to have developed links
to other enemies of Basayev, including the Yamadayevs.

¶26. (C) The religious division dictated certain policies to each side. The Sufi
tradition of Maskhadov and Kadyrov had been associated for over two centuries
with nationalist resistance. Basayev, with his new-found commitment to
al-Khattab's Salafism, adopted the Salafi stress on a pan-Islamic community
("umma") fighting a worldwide jihad, notionally without regard for ethnic or
national boundaries. Al-Khattab and Basayev invaded Dagestan in August 1999,
avowedly in pursuit of a Caucasus-wide revolt against the Russians. They brought
on a Russian invasion that threw Maskhadov out of Groznyy.

Chechenization Begins
---------------------

¶27. (C) The second Russian invasion did not unite the Chechens, as previous
pressure had. Perhaps the influence of al-Khattab and his Salafists, as well as
the devastation of the first war, had rent the fabric of Chechen society too
much to restore traditional unity in the face of the outside threat. (We should
also remember that unity is relative. Only a small percentage of the Chechens
actually fought in the first war, and many supported the Russians out of disgust
with Dudayev.) Kadyrov and the Yamadayevs separately broke with Maskhadov and
defected to the Russians. Kadyrov began to recruit from the insurgency
non-Salafist nationalist fighters who were highly demoralized and disoriented by
the disastrous retreat from Groznyy in late 1999. Kadyrov began to preach what
Kunta-Haji had preached after the Russian victory over Imam Shamil in 1859: to
survive, the Chechens needed tactically to accept Russian rule. His message
struck a chord, and fighters began to defect to his side.

¶28. (C) Putin appears to have stumbled upon Kadyrov, and their alliance seems
to have grown out of chance as much as design. But they were able to forge a
deal along the following lines: Kadyrov would declare loyalty to Russia and
deliver loyalty to Putin; he would take over Maskhadov's place at the head of
the Russian-blessed government of Chechnya; he would try to win over Maskhadov's
fighters, to whom he could promise immunity; he would govern Chechnya with full
autonomy, without interference from Russian officials below Putin's level; and
he would try to exterminate Basayev and Al-Khattab.

¶29. (C) If the objective of Chechenization was to win over fighters who would
carry on the fight against Basayev and the Arab successors to Khattab (who was
poisoned in April 2002), it has to be judged a success. The real fighting has
for several years been carried out by Chechen forces who fight the war they want
to fight -- not the one the Russian military wants them to -- and who appear
happy to kill Russians when they get in the way. The Russian military is "just
trying to survive," as one officer put it. Not all the pro-Moscow Chechen units
are composed of former guerrillas. Said-Magomed Kakiyev, commander of the
GRU-controlled "West" battalion, has been fighting Dudayev and his successors
since 1993. But at the heart of the pro-Moscow effort are fighters who defected
from the anti-Moscow insurgency.

The Military Overstays Its Welcome
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----------------------------------

¶30. (C) The development of Kadyrov's fighting force, along with that of the
Yamadayev brothers, left the stage clear for a drawdown of Russian troops,
certainly by early 2004 (leaving aside a permanent garrison presence). But those
troops, still not fully responsive to FSB control, did not want to leave.
Especially now that Chechens had taken over increasing parts of the security
portfolio, the Russian officers were free to concentrate on their economic
activities, and in particular oil smuggling.

¶31. (C) Kadyrov could not be fully autonomous until he -- not the Russians --
controlled Chechnya's oil. He therefore demanded the creation of a Chechen oil
company under his jurisdiction. That would have severely limited the ability of
federal forces to divert and smuggle oil. On May 9, 2004, Kadyrov was
assassinated by an enormous bomb planted under his seat at the annual VE Day
celebration. The killing was officially ascribed to Chechen rebels, but many
believe it was the Russian Army's way of rejecting Kadyrov's demand. Under the
circumstances, one cannot exclude that both versions are true.

In the Reign of Ramzan
----------------------

¶32. (C) Kadyrov's passing left power in the hands of his son Ramzan, who was
officially made Deputy Prime Minister. The President, Alu Alkhanov, was a
figurehead put in place because Ramzan was underage. The Prime Minister, Sergey
Abramov, was tasked with interfacing between Kadyrov and Moscow below the level
of Putin.

¶33. (C) Ramzan Kadyrov has none of the religious or personal prestige that his
father had. He is a warlord pure and simple -- one of several, like the
Yamadayev family of warlords. He is lucky, however, in that his father left him
a sufficient fighting force of ex-rebels. Though they may have been lured away
from the insurgency for a variety of reasons, it is money that keeps them.
Kadyrov feels little need for ideological or religious prestige, though he makes
an occasional statement designed to appeal to Muslims, and makes a point of
supporting the pilgrimage to the tomb of Kunta-Haji's mother in Gunoy, near
Vedeno (though that is in part to show he is stronger than Basayev, whose home
and power base are in the Vedeno region). Kadyrov must only satisfy his troops,
who on occasion have shown that, if offended or not given enough, they are
willing to desert along with their kinsmen and return to the mountains to fight
against him. He must also guard against the possibility, as some charge, that
some of the fighters who went over to Federal forces did so under orders from
guerrilla commanders for whom they are still working.

¶34. (C) Kadyrov is also fortunate in that the FSB, with whom he has close ties,
has by this time emasculated the military as "prong one" of Putin's strategy.
Kadyrov has slowly but surely also taken over most of the spigots of money that
once fed the army, and like his father he has started agitating for overt
control over Chechnya's oil (while prudently ensuring that others take the lead
on that in public). Kadyrov is at least as corrupt as the military, but the
money he expropriates for himself from Moscow's subsidies is accepted as his
pay-off for keeping things quiet. And indeed Kadyrov and the other warlords are
capable of maintaining a certain degree of security in Chechnya. The showy
"reconstruction" developments they have built in Groznyy and their home towns
demonstrate that the guerrillas cannot or at least do not halt construction and
economic activity. Moreover, there is enough security to end Putin's worries
about a secessionist victory. That has allowed Putin to demonstrate a new
willingness to be increasingly overt in support of separatism in other conflicts
(e.g., Abkhazia, Transnistria) when that advances Russian interests.

¶35. (C) Despite its successes to date, however, Putin's strategy is far from
completed. He still needs to keep forces in the region as a constant reminder to
Kadyrov not to backtrack on his professed loyalty to the Kremlin. Ideally, that
force would be small but capable of intervening effectively in Chechen internal
affairs. That is unrealistic at present. The current forces, reportedly over
25,000, are bunkered and corrupt. When they venture on patrol they are routinely
attacked. One attempt to redress this is to position Russian forces close but
"over the horizon" in Dagestan, where a major military base is under
construction at Botlikh. However, that may only add to the instability of
Dagestan. A Duma Deputy from the region told us that locals are vehemently
opposed to the new military base, despite the economic opportunities it
represents, on grounds that the soldiers will "corrupt the morals of their
children."
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¶36. (C) Another approach is the Chechenization of the Federal forces
themselves. Recently "North" and "South" battalions of ethnically Chechen
special forces -- drawn from Kadyrov's militia -- were created to supplement the
"East" and "West" battalions of Sulim Yamadayev and Said-Magomed Kakiyev. Those
formations are officially part of the Russian army. The Kremlin strategy appears
to be to check Kadyrov by promoting warlords he cannot control, and to check the
FSB from becoming too clientized by allowing the MOD to retain a sphere of
influence. In Chechnya, that is a recipe for open fighting. We saw one small
instance of that on April 25, when bodyguards of Kadyrov and Chechen President
Alkhanov got into a firefight. According to one insider, the clash originated in
Kadyrov's desire to get rid of Alkhanov, who now has close ties with Yamadayev.

What Can We Expect in the Future?
---------------------------------

¶37. (C) The Chechen population is the great loser in this game. It bears an
ever heavier burden in shake-downs, opportunity costs from misappropriation of
reconstruction funds, and the constant trauma of victimization and abuse --
including abduction, torture, and murder -- by the armed thugs who run Chechnya
(reftels). Security under those circumstances is a fragile veneer, and stability
an illusion. The insurgency can continue indefinitely, at a low level and
without prospects of success, but significant enough to serve as a pretext for
the continued rule of thuggery.

¶38. (C) The insurgency will remain split between those who want to carry on
Maskhadov's non-Salafist struggle for national independence and those who follow
the Salafi-influenced Basayev in his pursuit of a Caucasus-wide Caliphate. But
the nationalists have been undercut by Kadyrov. Despite Sadullayev's efforts,
the insurgency inside Chechnya is not likely to meet with success and will
continue to become more Salafist in tone.

¶39. (C) Prospects would be poor for the nationalists even if Kadyrov and/or
Yamadayev were assassinated (and there is much speculation that one will succeed
in killing the other, goaded on by the FSB which supports Kadyrov and the GRU
which supports Yamadayev). The thousands of guerrillas who have joined those two
militias have by now lost all ideological incentive. Since they already run the
country, they feel themselves, not the Russians, to be the masters, and are not
responsive to Sadullayev's nationalist calls; Basayev's Salafist message has
even less appeal to them. Even if their current leaders are eliminated, all they
will need is a new warlord, easily generated from within their organizations,
and they can continue on their current paths.

¶40. (C) We expect that Salafism will continue to grow. The insurgents even
inside Chechnya are reportedly becoming predominantly Salafist, as opposition on
a narrowly nationalist basis offers less hope of success. Salafis will come both
from inside Chechnya, where militia excesses outrage the population, and from
elsewhere in the Caucasus, where radicalization is proceeding rapidly as a
result of the repressive policies of Russia's regional satraps. There are
numerous eyewitness accounts from both Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria that
elite young adults and university students are joining Salafist groups. In one
case, a terrorist killed in Dagestan was found recently to have defended his
doctoral dissertation at Moscow State University -- on Wahhabism in the North
Caucasus. These young adults, denied economic opportunities, turn to religion as
an outlet. They find, however, that representatives of the traditional
religious establishments in these republics, long isolated under the thumb of
Soviet restrictions, are ill-educated and ill-prepared to deal with the
sophisticated theological arguments developed by generations of Salafists in the
Middle East. Most of those who join fundamentalist jamaats do not, of course,
become terrorists. But a percentage do, and with that steady source of recruits
the major battlefield could shift to outside Chechnya, with armed clashes in
other parts of the North Caucasus and a continuation of sporadic but spectacular
terrorist acts in Moscow and other parts of Russia.

¶41. (C) Outside Chechnya, the most likely venue for clashes with authorities is
Dagestan. Putin's imposition of a "power vertical" there has upset the delicate
clan and ethnic balance that offered a shaky stability since the collapse of
Soviet power. He installed a president (the weak Mukhu Aliyev) in place of a
14-member multi-ethnic presidential council. Aliyev will be unable to prevent a
ruthless struggle among the elite -- the local way of elaborating a new balance
of power. This is already happening, with assassinations of provincial chiefs
since Aliyev took over.
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In one province in the south of the republic, an uprising against the chief
appointed by Aliyev's predecessor was suppressed by gunfire. Four demonstrators
were shot dead, initiating a cycle of blood revenge. In May, in two Dagestani
cities security force operations against "terrorists" resulted in major
shootouts, with victims among the bystanders and whole apartment houses rendered
uninhabitable after hits from the security forces' heavy weaponry. It is not
clear whether the "terrorists" were really religious activists ("Whenever they
want to eliminate someone, they call him a Wahhabi," the MP from Makhachkala
told us). But the populace, seeing the deadly over-reaction of the security
forces, is feeling sympathy for their victims -- so much so that Aliyev has had
to make public condemnations of the actions of the security forces. If this
chaos deepens, as appears likely, the Jihadist groups ("jamaats") may grow,
drift further in Basayev's direction, and feel the need to respond to attacks
from the local government.

¶42. (C) Local forces are unreliable in such cases, for clan and blood-feud
reasons. Wahhabist jamaats flourished in the strategic ethnically Dargin
districts of Karamakhi and Chabanmakhi in the mid-1990s, but Dagestan's rulers
left them alone because moving against them meant altering the delicate ethnic
balance between Dargins and Avars. Only when the jamaats themselves became
expansive during the Basayev/Khattab invasion from Chechnya in the summer of
1999 did the Makhachkala authorities take action, and then only with the
assistance of Federal forces. Ultimately, if clashes break out on a wide scale
in Dagestan, Moscow would have to send in the Federal army. Deploying the army
to combat destabilization in Dagestan, however, could jeopardize Putin's
hard-won control over it. Unleashing the army against a "terrorist" threat is
just that: allowing the army off its new leash. Large-scale army deployments to
Dagestan would be especially attractive to the officers, since the border with
Azerbaijan offers lucrative opportunities for contraband trade. The army's
presence, in turn, would further destabilize Dagestan and all but guarantee
chaos.

¶43. (C) Indeed, destabilization is the most likely prospect we see when we look
further down the road to the next decade. Chechenization allows bellicose
Chechen leaders to throw their weight around in the North Caucasus even more
than an independent Chechnya would. A case in point is the call on April 24 by
Chechen Parliament Speaker Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov for unification of Chechnya,
Ingushetia and Dagestan, implicitly under Chechen domination (the one million
Chechens would constitute a plurality in the new republic of 4.5 million). The
call soured slowly normalizing relations between Chechnya and Ingushetia,
according to a Chechen official in Moscow, though the Dagestanis treated the
proposal as a joke.

What Should Putin Be Doing?
---------------------------

¶44. (C) Right now Putin's policy towards Chechnya is channeled through Kadyrov
and Yamadayev. Putin's Plenipotentiary Representative (PolPred) for the Southern
Federal District, Dmitriy Kozak, appears to have little influence. He was not
even invited when Putin addressed the new Parliament in Groznyy last December.
Putin needs to stop taking Kadyrov's phone calls and start working more through
his PolPred and the government's special services. He also needs to increase
Moscow's civilian engagement with Chechnya.

¶45. (C) Putin should continue to reform the military and the other Power
Ministries. Having asserted control through Sergey Ivanov, Putin has denied the
military certain limited areas in which it had pursued criminal activity -- but
left most of its criminal enterprises untouched. He has done little if anything
to form the discipline of a modern army deployable to impose order in unstable
regions such as the North Caucasus. Recent hazing incidents show that discipline
is still equated with sadism and brutality. The Ministry of Internal Affairs
(MVD) has undergone even less reform. The Chechenization of the security
services, despite its obvious drawbacks, has shown that locals can carry out
security tasks more effectively than Russian troops.

¶46. (C) Lastly, Putin should realize that his current policy course is not
preventing the growth of militant, armed Jihadism. Rather, every time his
subordinates try to douse the flames, the fire grows hotter and spreads farther.
Putin needs to check the firehose; he may find they are spraying the fire with
gasoline. He needs to work out a credible strategy, employing economic and
cultural levers, to deal with the issue of armed Jihadism. Some Russians do "get
it." An advisor to Kozak gave a lecture recently that showed he understands in
great detail the issues surrounding the growth
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of militant jihadism. Kozak himself made clear in a recent conversation with the
Ambassador that he appreciates clearly the deep social and economic roots of
Russia's problems in the North Caucasus -- and the need to employ more than just
security measures to solve them. We have not, however, seen evidence that
consciousness of the true problem has yet made its way to Moscow from Kozak's
office in Rostov-on-Don.

¶47. (C) We need also to be aware that Putin's strategy is generating a backlash
in Moscow. Ramzan Kadyrov's excesses, his Putin-given immunity from federal
influence, and the special laws that apply to Chechnya alone (such as the
exemption of Chechens from military service elsewhere in Russia) are leading to
charges by some Moscow observers that Putin has allowed Chechnya de facto to
secede. Putin is strong enough to weather such criticism, but the ability of a
successor to do so is less clear.

Is There a Role for the U.S.?
-----------------------------

¶48. (C) Russia does not consider the U.S. a friend in the Caucasus, and our
capacity to influence Russia, whether by pressure, persuasion or assistance, is
small. What we can do is continue to try to push the senior tier of Russian
officials towards the realization that current policies are conducive to
Jihadism, which threatens broader stability as well; and that shifting the
responsibility for victimizing and looting the people from a corrupt, brutal
military to corrupt, brutal locals is not a long-term solution.

¶49. (C) Making headway with Putin or his successor will require close
cooperation with our European allies. They, like the Russians, tend to view the
issue through a strictly counter-terrorism lens. The British, for example, link
their "dialogue with Islam" closely with their counter-terrorist effort (on
which they liaise with the Russians), reinforcing the conception of a monolithic
Muslim identity predisposed to terrorism. That reinforces the Russian view that
the problem of the North Caucasus can be consigned to the terrorism basket, and
that finding a solution means in the first instance finding a better way to kill
terrorists.

¶50. (C) We and the Europeans need to put our proposals of assistance to the
North Caucasus in a different context: one that recognizes the role of religion
in North Caucasus cultures, but also emphasizes our interest in and support for
the non-religious aspects of North Caucasus society, including civil society.
This last will need exceptional delicacy, as the Russians and the local
authorities are convinced that the U.S. uses civil society to foment "color
revolutions" and anti-Russian regimes. There is a danger that our civil society
partners could become what Churchill called "the inopportune missionary" who,
despite impeccable intentions, sets back the larger effort. That need not be the
case.

¶51. (C) Our interests call for an understanding of the context and a positive
emphasis. We cannot expect the Russians to react well if we limit our statements
to condemnations of Kadyrov, butcher though he may be. We need to find targeted
areas in which we can work with the Russians to get effective aid into Chechnya.
At the same time, we need to be on our guard that our efforts do not appear to
constitute U.S. support for Kremlin or local policies that abuse human rights.
We must also avoid a shift that endorses the Kremlin assertion that there is no
longer a humanitarian crisis in Chechnya, which goes hand-in-hand with the
Russian request that the UN and its donors end humanitarian assistance to the
region and increase technical and "recovery" assistance. We and other donors
need to maintain a balance between humanitarian and recovery assistance.

¶52. (C) Aside from the political optic, a rush to cut humanitarian assistance
before recovery programs are fully up and running would leave a vacuum into
which jihadist influences would leap. The European Commission Humanitarian
Organization, the largest provider of aid, shows signs of rushing to stress
recovery over humanitarian assistance; we should not follow suit. Humanitarian
assistance has been effective in relieving the plight of Chechen IDPs in
Ingushetia. It has been less effective inside Chechnya, where the GOR and
Kadyrov regime built temporary accommodation centers for returning IDPs, but
have not passed on enough resources to secure a reasonable standard of living.
International organizations are hampered by limited access to Chechnya out of
security concerns, but where they are able to operate freely they have made a
great difference, e.g., WHO's immunization program.

¶53. (C) Resources aimed at Chechnya often wind up in private pockets. Though
international assistance has a better record
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than Russian assistance and is more closely monitored, we must also be wary of
assistance that lends itself to massive corruption and state-sponsored banditry
in Chechnya: too much of the money loaned in a microfinance program there, for
example, would be expropriated by militias. Presidential Advisor Aslakhanov told
us last December that Kadyrov expropriates for himself one third off the top of
all assistance. Therefore, while we continue well-monitored humanitarian
assistance inside Chechnya, we should broaden our efforts for "recovery" to
other parts of the region that are threatened by jihadism: Dagestan,
Kabardino-Balkaria, Ingushetia, and possibly Karachayevo-Cherkessia. Among
these, we need to try to steer our assistance ($11.5 million for FY 2006) to
regional officials, such as President Kanokov of Kabardino-Balkaria, who have
shown that they are willing to introduce local reforms and get rid of the brutal
security officials whose repressive acts feed the Jihadist movement.

¶54. (C) We also need to coordinate closely with Kozak (or his successor), both
to strengthen his position vis--vis the warlords and to ensure that everything
we do is perceived by the Russians as transparent and not aimed at challenging
the GOR's hold on a troubled region. The present opposite perception by the GOR
may be behind its reluctance to cooperate with donors, the UN and IFIs on
long-term strategic engagement in the region. For example, the GOR has delayed
for months a 20-million-Euro TACIS program designed with GOR input.

¶55. (C) The interagency paper "U.S. Policy in the North Caucasus -- The Way
Forward" provides a number of important principles for positive engagement. We
need to emphasize programs in accordance with those principles which are most
practical under current and likely future conditions, and which can be most
effective in targeting the most vulnerable, where federal and local governments
lack the will and capacity to assist, and in combating the spread of jihadism
both inside Chechnya and throughout the North Caucasus region. There are areas
-- for example, health care and child welfare -- in which assistance fits neatly
with Russian priorities, containing both humanitarian and recovery components.

¶56. (C) We can also emphasize programs that help create jobs and job
opportunities: microfinance (where feasible), credit cooperatives and small
business development, and educational exchanges. U.S. sponsored training
programs for credit cooperatives and government budgeting functions have been
very popular. Exchanges, through the IVP program and Community Connections, are
an especially effective way of exposing future leaders to the world beyond the
narrow propaganda they have received, and to generate a multiplier effect in
enterprise. In addition to the effects the programs themselves can have in
providing alternatives to religious extremism, such assistance can also have a
demonstration effect: showing the Russians that improved governance and delivery
of services can be more effective in stabilizing the region than attempts to
impose order by force.

¶57. (C) Lastly, we need to look ahead in our relations with Azerbaijan and
Georgia to ensure that they become more active and effective players in helping
to contain instability in the North Caucasus. That will serve their own security
interests as well. Salafis need connections to their worldwide network.
Strengthening border forces is more important than ever. Azerbaijan, especially,
is well placed to trade with Dagestan and Chechnya. The ethnic Azeris, Lezghis
and Avars living on both sides of the Azerbaijan-Dagestan border and friendly
relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are tools for promoting stability.

Conclusion
--------

¶58. (C) The situation in the North Caucasus is trending towards
destabilization, despite the increase in security inside Chechnya. The steps we
believe Putin must take are those needed to reverse that trend, and the efforts
we have outlined for ourselves are premised on a desire to promote a lasting
stabilization built on improved governance, a more active civil society, and
steps towards democratization. But we must be realistic about Russia's
willingness and ability to take the necessary steps, with or without our
assistance. Real stabilization remains a low probability. Sound policy on
Chechnya is likely to continue to founder in the swamp of corruption, Kremlin
infighting and succession politics. Much more probable is a new phase of
instability that will be felt throughout the North Caucasus and have effects
beyond. BURNS

ChechenCenter.info